'The trouble is the uncertainties on all the numbers in this sequence are huge,' he says. Seth Stein, a Northwestern University seismologist who has no relation to Ross Stein, finds the approach worthwhile, but takes a dimmer view of the result. The different stories illustrate the promise and limitations of these models, Stein says. On the other hand, immediately after the disastrous 2004 Sumatran earthquake, another team published calculations showing it was likely to trigger a subsequent nearby rupture, a forecast published days before a massive event did hit the island of Simeulue, just as foreseen. Following the 1999 Izmit earthquake in Turkey, Stein and colleagues made a similar forecast of heightened risk in Istanbul, predicting a 60% chance of a major earthquake there within 3 decades. Stress-transfer models of the kind used in the new study have a long history in seismology, but their value remains uncertain. More than 3 million homes could be damaged, at a reconstruction cost of $289 billion. USGS regional scenarios anticipate 1800 deaths and 50,000 injuries in the event of a major San Andreas earthquake.

In principle, a Garlock earthquake could lead to rupture on the San Andreas in a matter of hours or days, much as the two Ridgecrest events came within a day or two. And if the Garlock actually does rupture, then the hazard really rises on the San Andreas, by a factor of 150: The probability of a big one rises to 50% in the following year. The new modeling triples that hazard to 1% per year-or a big one every century, the team reports today in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates for the annual probability of an earthquake on this part of the San Andreas are about one-third of a percent-equivalent to expecting a magnitude 7.8 every 300 years, on average. Yet, based on modeling from Stein and Shinji Toda, a seismologist at Tohoku University, stresses resulting from the Ridgecrest quakes have made the Garlock fault 100 times more likely to rupture-which would in turn boost the chances of the San Andreas rupturing. The Garlock fault has not ruptured in 600 years, and given its location in a sparsely populated region, it is not regarded as a great threat. The reason, he explains, is that two quakes put new stresses on the Garlock fault, a relatively dormant fault that runs through the desert toward the San Andreas. Yet the faraway earthquakes have raised the hazard for Los Angelenos, says Stein, CEO of Temblor, a company that specializes in catastrophe modeling. The temblors damaged buildings in the area, but residents in Los Angeles, nearly 200 kilometers away, felt little more than light shaking. In July 2019, two faults near the town of Ridgecrest ruptured in quick succession: a magnitude 6.4 on 4 July, followed by a substantial magnitude 7.1 a day and a half later. 'But that is because we do not appreciate the way the network of fault lines connect across the state.' 'You would think an earthquake … out in the desert would have no impact on Los Angeles,' says Ross Stein, a seismologist and one of the authors of the new study. The research finds that the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, quakes shifted underground stresses, making the San Andreas fault-the state's longest and most dangerous fault-three times more likely to rupture. Please call (775) 784-4975 to verify any event reported here.A pair of earthquakes that struck the remote California desert 1 year ago have raised the risk of 'the big one' hitting Southern California, according to a new study. Entries shown as 'Prelim' below are PRELIMINARY and have NOT BEEN REVIEWED BY AN ANALYST. The NBE contains automatic, unreviewed, and often erroneous event notifications generated in real-time. Earthquakes listed have magnitudes of 1.0 and above. The Nevada Broadcast of Earthquakes reports Nevada regional earthquakes within the last 30 days.

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